One can not perceive watchmaking at present and not using a agency grasp on historical past, and actuality too. It’s all too simple to associate with watchmaking manufacturers once they brandish carbon fibre circumstances as if they’re the very newest factor. Because it occurs, this spoils the truth that carbon fibre stays absurdly helpful in watchmaking by advantage of its extraordinarily excessive particular power ranking (see the sidebar beneath). Greater than something although, empty advertising discuss merely ruins the conclusion that there could be solely two Swiss manufacturers making ceramic circumstances in sand or dessert yellow.
In different phrases, innovation is just not a lot the story as rarity is – for the needs of this prolonged story then, we might be relegating the very thought of innovation to the sidelines. Now, in case you are longtime reader, you would possibly discover this odd however bear with us as we meander via yet one more of our supplies specials. And, for these of you who marvel in regards to the ceramic circumstances, we would get to a solution, however the thought there’s so that you can have some enjoyable figuring issues out.
As we wrote final 12 months, one in all our first deep dives into the supplies that make up the watches that we love was in 2016. It was not a daily characteristic of the journal till 2019 although, when it anchored the Summer time concern. Problem #53 featured the now-discontinued TAG Heuer Autovia Isograph (with the phrase Isograph on the dial) in bronze and, with this ambiguous begin, we had been off to the races. The supplies particular has appeared in each Summer time concern since, making this the seventh instalment in an unbroken row. This, in fact, can also be a little bit of historical past and instantly informs the story this concern.
Learn Extra: New Steadiness – TAG Heuer Autavia Isograph
Whereas now we have managed to cowl each typical (and a few very atypical) materials utilized by the watchmaking commerce, some context is helpful earlier than we begin over. Sure, we’re going over all the pieces once more with out correctly masking metal, type of. The alloy will get its due proper right here, as a part of this recap or rethread, as you please. Metal is by far the most typical and standard materials in watchmaking, effective or in any other case, rivalled solely by brass and plastic.
Watches cased in metal symbolize greater than 50% of all watches exported from Switzerland, as of 2024 and this has remained comparatively constant over the past 10 years (supply: Federation of Swiss Watchmaking in any other case often called the FH. Most figures cited on this phase are from the FH or Statista, the place famous). A complete supplies particular devoted to metal appeared a bit a lot, given that there’s nothing new to report on it and it has not gotten itself on the uncommon and strange supplies checklist.
Narrative Objective
We should always pause right here to notice that every one figures from the FH symbolize Swiss exports at export costs, not retail costs. These are additionally not indicative of watches from different nations of origin nor of currencies apart from the Swiss franc. The FH figures additionally don’t embody the Swiss home market, which additionally contains what vacationers purchase in-country.
In any occasion, the trio of metal, brass and plastic is in all the pieces, from the within out, from circumstances to actions and past. For the sake of a extra full image, we do embody metal on this story, though it will get far much less house than some other materials, relative to the specials that every materials as soon as acquired.
However metal has a story function right here, an acceptable one because it occurs. On this very concern, the ever-popular Tick Speak (previously often called The Dialog) additionally sees the editors grapple with the difficulty of how watches in gold and platinum are priced.
Learn Extra: The Dialog: Engineering Success
That is very important to understand as a result of treasured metals have been the lifeblood of the watch commerce, whilst Swiss export volumes have tumbled. The trade is down 5.8 p.c, year-on-year (to finish of March, when this story was written). This follows a hunch of 9.4 p.c final 12 months. Over the previous decade, complete volumes have nearly halved, lowering from 28.1 million models in 2015 to fifteen.3 million final 12 months. By means of distinction, worth has proved constant, so watch manufacturers have been doing the identical enterprise with fewer watches. That is all the way down to the flexibility of manufacturers to cost a premium on gold and platinum, and metal too, to an extent.
The amount actuality additionally contrasts strongly with sentiments expressed by the leaders of the watch enterprise since 2021. To quote only one instance, Breitling CEO Georges Kern advised EuropaStar in 2023 that he anticipated the model to surpass CHF1 billion that 12 months. In accordance with the most recent Morgan Stanley estimates (printed this 12 months, for 2024), the model hit CHF850 million, which is down from the CHF870 million estimated for 2023. For the file, we use this instance to spotlight the shortage of helpful reference numbers in watchmaking. Breitling itself estimates that its manufacturing is someplace between 250,000-280,000 models in 2023 however Morgan Stanley solely lists 178,000 models offered in 2023 and 160,000 models in 2024. These are not any small discrepancies, to be delicate about it, and Breitling is just not an outlier nor a particular case.
Our resolution to the difficulty of non-transparency in Swiss watchmaking is to make logical extrapolations and guess-timates. It isn’t nice however it’s the greatest anybody can do, and likewise explains why we’re citing the Morgan Stanley figures. The trade would possibly criticize this report but it surely does little to make the job of third-party reporting simpler.
To caveat the above level about guess-timation although, there are critical limitations. For instance, one would possibly assume that the Daytona mannequin is of minor significance to Rolex, simply going by its lonely place within the catalogue because the model’s solely chronograph. In accordance with the model’s web site, there are 47 fashions within the present catalogue, which pales compared with Omega’s 114 fashions, simply within the Speedmaster household; there are additionally chronographs within the Seamaster vary, to quote only one different Omega assortment. A seek for ‘chronograph’ on the Breitling web site turns up 123 watches.So, one may conclude that the chronograph is considerably much less necessary to Rolex than it’s to both Omega or Breitling.
Learn Extra: Rolex 24 at Daytona 2025 Pushes Limits of Man and Machine
Clearly, the conclusion above is mistaken and there’s simply not sufficient info to make any type of judgment or comparability – no less than not with simply the above-mentioned publicly obtainable knowledge. Even when the chronograph is, the truth is, much less necessary to Rolex than to different manufacturers, the guesswork we employed is simply mistaken. This serves for example the hazards of guesswork when the shortage of information renders good solutions unavailable. This story will see us keep away from rank hypothesis and keep away from tempting logical fallacies, or no less than we will endeavour to make it so. When good knowledge factors are unavailable, we would make some leaps however we’ll signpost these the place potential.
Nonetheless Loving You
Metal and gold additionally body this opener as a result of each are deeply related with watchmaking, with silver having fallen by the wayside in modern instances. We posit {that a} key second was the 1972 debut of the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, which really appeared in a white gold case as a prototype at Baselworld; the casemaker had but to develop the means to create the identical in metal. Sure, prefer it or not, the ripples created by this seminal watch are nonetheless being felt. The actual ripple that issues us right here is the choice by the Le Brassus watchmaker to supply effective ending for the metal case, as if it was gold. Patek Philippe sealed the deal for the broader gathering world with the thematically related Nautilus in 1976. Treating metal as one thing treasured should have appeared mad, but it surely gave watchmakers the flexibility to cost gold costs – extra even – whereas giving collectors purpose to really feel that the watches had been one thing above something in gold or metal.
Learn Extra: An Azure Evolution of Patek Philippe’s Women’ Nautilus 7010/1G-013
Evidently, a complete crop of watches emerged (partially) to check this proposition, the place a steel that was as soon as merely useful (or adequate for the hoi polloi) was remodeled and elevated to the noble ranks of its treasured brethren. Successfully, this rise in standing occurred as a result of the watchmakers stated so. From right here, we will hint a via line that outcomes ultimately within the rise of Hublot and Richard Mille – the latter is particularly well-known for its Midas contact, giving technically thrilling supplies an enchantment far greater than something merely treasured. Sure, “merely,” though all manufacturers that raised the sport for metal and different prosaic supplies additionally gained the possibility to skew costs greater on the valuable steel variants they inevitably launched.
Now, arguments in regards to the above topic have gripped the collector neighborhood since earlier than that Scorpions tune was an earworm, on-line and offline. The very fact stays that Richard Mille exists and continues to ply its commerce efficiently. No matter watchmaker can pull this trick off once more will supply a lifeline to all the trade. That is the important thing level of this story, and we might be returning to it repeatedly. On this broadly formidable part, we suggest that such a transfer will occur not with Alusic (pair with Richard Mille and Google) however ceramic or titanium. Most likely each. Principally, one thing that watchmakers are already utilizing, simply with out the razzle-dazzle of a transformative marketing campaign.
As Uncommon As Mud
In a nutshell, as talked about, transformation is the purpose and the very coronary heart of this narrative. We danced round this topic for all the time that this journal has existed, given the Richard Mille parallels. To return to that lifeline bit we tossed off ever so casually, this pertains to margins.
Ceramic and titanium boast distinctive virtues within the space of performance, and are about as uncommon as mud. What remains to be uncommon is the appliance of excessive polish, brushed ending and different effective touches in these supplies however, extra prominently, the extra urgent concern is one in all manufacturing numbers.
Right here, we encounter as soon as extra a sure lack of understanding however what numbers can be found don’t bode properly for metals apart from the valuable kind and metal. However, optimists would possibly see alternative right here for one thing apart from hand-wringing.
Final 12 months, Switzerland exported 8.4 million watches in metal however no knowledge exists for titanium. As an alternative, the Swiss checklist watches in “Different Metals,” which excludes treasured metals and combos of a treasured steel and one thing not treasured, that are each separate classes.
Within the Different Metals class of watches for 2024, just one.2 million watches had been made, representing roughly 14 p.c of all watches exported in metal. This isn’t an enchancment over earlier years. Going again to 2016, 13.7 million watches in metal had been exported versus 2.9 million watches in “Different Metals.” This represents 21 p.c of all watches exported in metal.
This could be an odd variable to have a look at, or an odd manner of evaluating variables, however we might be issues in a extra simple method within the part on titanium. For now, it ought to be famous whereas now we have complete Swiss export figures from 2015 and even earlier, we solely have knowledge on the cut up of supplies from 2016 onwards. That stated, allow us to have a look at what number of watches had been exported in 2016, which was 25.4 million models.
Referencing our earlier determine for 2015, this already represents a downturn in quantity. We choose these years as they symbolize key milestones, with 2015 representing the primary downturn for the trade since 2009 (by worth, in CHF).
Worth Propositions
When it comes to quantity, the 28.1 million watches exported represented a return to 2013 kind. Since 2015, volumes have been trending down persistently, with exports final 12 months amounting to only 15.3 million models. By worth, Swiss exporters registered CHF 26 billion in 2024 versus CHF26.74 billion in 2023. Wanting again to 2015, complete worth of watch exports was CHF21.5 billion; by way of values, all figures aren’t normalized for inflation nor adjustments within the worth of the Swiss franc.
This being stated, the trade is clearly doing extra with much less, or making extra with much less, in the event you choose. Briefly, we will moderately conclude that volumes are down whereas values are up. We will attain somewhat and recommend that that is what the Swiss watch trade would like, even when it says the other.
Once you discover how the numbers shift by way of the valuable metals class (see the related subsection) over time, there are implications on the “Different Supplies,” class. This class contains all the pieces that isn’t a steel of some sort, which incorporates all the pieces from high-tech ceramic and sapphire crystals to plastics and composites. We’re utilizing this conclusion to assist the concept rising income (i.e. worth as now we have been utilizing it right here) could be tied extra to supplies apart from the valuable stuff. In Tick Speak this concern, this author even suggests that onerous stone dials may assist elevated costs that assist enhance the income for even metal fashions.
Why ought to we care about what watch manufacturers earn? Nicely, for these of you who marvel, manufacturers are gaining this worth from us, the individuals who purchase their beautiful (hopefully) watches. They should be convincing of their propositions – no less than as a lot as the full design creations of Gerald Genta proved to be for Audemars Piguet and Patek Philippe.
Whereas that is the gold normal, if you’ll pardon the pun, this shouldn’t be taken to imply some model or different goes to burst out with transformative titanium or ceramic watch. Not one of the manufacturers within the unique Genta wave of the Seventies had smash hits proper out of the gate. Not one of the manufacturers that preceded them did both. Subsequently, it appears probably that no model ever will.
What in regards to the instance of Richard Mille then? The simplified reply is that the model was not instantly profitable. Arguably, many manufacturers paved the best way for Mr Mille when he launched his eponymous model, again within the day. In accordance with our trade sources (who, regretfully, should stay nameless), even he didn’t have what could be known as an in a single day success. In truth, we’re utilizing Richard Mille as each an instance and a counterpoint – the success of the model is because of far more than materials selections, and we belief that that is apparent. Thus, we use Richard Mille to metal man the proposition that manufacturers will want greater than sensible materials selections to safe their futures, or the way forward for their margins.
A Brighter Tomorrow
At this late stage of the introduction, we wish to drag markets into this, only for a measure of completeness. If the USA finds itself an urge for food for titanium watches, then the world will observe. UK specialist rag WatchPro estimates {that a} third of the US luxurious watch market is taken up by simply Rolex and if Rolex can promote extra titanium sports activities watches there, it would naturally lean extra closely on this path. Maybe the model will lean into this steel for the Land-Dweller; we suggest a titanium and platinum model.
Learn Extra: The Rolex Land-Dweller Turns Hearsay to Revelation
This digression apart, we all know the watch world desires extra titanium and that Rolex fans specifically are eager to see extra of this materials in that model’s choices. This mix of brand name, market and supplies, as we suggest, is what makes titanium thrilling however, likewise, may additionally herald a shiny future for technical ceramic.
On this word, Audemars Piguet guarantees that its Royal Oak ceramic circumstances are simply as curiously completed because the metal ones. The in need of it’s that watchmaking manufacturers will wish to convey conventional effective ending and handwork to supplies that don’t usually obtain these. If the fabric is one which requires overcoming technical hurdles, a lot the higher.
This leads on to a remaining digression, which issues opinions, once more. We save these for each this introduction and our concluding ideas, which is a pure opinion piece penned by the editor (additionally the creator of this complete part). We selected this format to keep away from editorializing inside bulk of the story, and the editor desires his say on particular examples that he cites. On this opinion piece, we’ll get again to issues such because the above instance of Audemars Piguet, so don’t anticipate extra on this within the part on ceramic, for instance. Additional ideas on topics like that depend as editorializing, in our view.
Technical Notes
Mechanical impedance: A measure of how a lot a construction resists when subjected to a pressure. Usually talking, it relates forces with velocities performing on a mechanical system. The mechanical impedance of a degree on a construction is the ratio of the pressure utilized at a degree to the ensuing velocity at that time (supply: sciencedirect.com). This metric combines with particular and tensile power to offer a sign of a given materials’s toughness. Toughness is a measure that we discover to be very helpful in evaluating supplies utilized in watchmaking.
Particular power: A cloth’s power (pressure per unit space at failure) divided by its density. It’s also often called the strength-to-weight ratio or power/weight ratio or strength-to-mass ratio. Particular power is a essential property in materials science; this metric permits engineers and scientists to judge the effectivity of any given materials. Not like absolute power, which measures how a lot pressure a cloth can stand up to, particular power supplies perception into how efficient a cloth is relative to its mass. This makes it particularly helpful in industries the place decreasing weight whereas sustaining power is crucial.
Passivation: This refurbished phase serves as a small correction to an unlucky omission on this part initially, particularly a definition so right here is one: Passivation is a extensively used chemical ending course of to take away contaminants and enhance the corrosion resistance of steel elements, together with stainless-steel and alloys like Nitinol and titanium. As famous, this refers to a type of therapy so it’s fairly aside from a property of any materials. For example, we proceed with the still-relevant instance of titanium though bronze and aluminium could be passivated too. Titanium is notable although for being solely present in nature in oxide kind.
Titanium readily reacts with oxygen at 1,200 °C in air, and at 610°C in pure oxygen, forming titanium dioxide. It’s gradual to reactwith water and air at ambient temperatures as a result of it kinds a passive oxide coating that protects the majority steel from additional oxidation. When it first kinds, this protecting layer is just one–2 nm thick however continues to develop slowly; reaching a thickness of 25 nm in 4 years. (Materials-Properties.org)
Final tensile power: the utmost on the engineering stress-strain curve. This corresponds to the utmost stress that may be sustained by a construction in pressure. If this stress is utilized and maintained, fracture will end result. Typically, this worth is considerably greater than the yield stress (as a lot as 50 to 60% greater than the yield for some sorts of metals). The stress-strain curve incorporates no greater stress than the last word power.
Although deformations can proceed to extend, the stress normally decreases after the last word power has been achieved. It’s an intensive property; due to this fact its worth doesn’t rely upon the dimensions of the check specimen. Nonetheless, it’s depending on different components, such because the preparation of the specimen, the presence or in any other case of floor defects, and the temperature of the check setting and materials. Final tensile strengths range from 50 MPa for an aluminium to as excessive as 3000 MPa for very high-strength steels. (Materials-Properties.org)
Hardness: Within the watch commerce, hardness is usually outlined in the identical manner for customers as it’s in jewelry – because the phrase hardness refers to gem stones. This normally means the Mohs scale, with some variations. This scale is ok for minerals, or issues which have a mineral construction. Metals would not have such a construction, so the Mohs scale needs to be modified to approximate the hardness of metals; it may also be argued that hardness is just not an intrinsic property of metals so the relevance is a bit suspect.
No matter check one makes use of although, we will roughly approximate the relative hardness of the metals so the Rockwell or Brinell scales give a tough indication however Vickers works simply as properly for our functions.. For instance, tungsten is without doubt one of the hardest metals, whether or not one goes by Vickers, Mohs, Rockwell or Brinell. That is helpful as a result of metals aren’t all the time commercially rated utilizing the identical scales, and there are a lot of sorts of bronzes and titanium alloys in use, even simply in watchmaking. However, the Mohs scale does properly for ceramic as a result of it’s a mineraloid.
This story was first seen as a part of the WOW #79 Summer time 2025 Problem
For extra on the most recent in luxurious watch reads, click on right here.
